Which experts have real expertise? This video is sponsored by Brilliant. The first 200 people to sign up via https://brilliant.org/veritasium get 20% off a yearly subscription.

Thanks to https://www.chess24.com/ and Chessable for the clip of Magnus.

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Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), 363. – https://ve42.co/anderson3

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Tetlock, P. E. (2017). Expert political judgment. In Expert Political Judgment. Princeton University Press. – https://ve42.co/Tetlock

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Meehl, E. P. (1954). Clinical versus Statistical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. University of Minnesota Press. – https://ve42.co/Meehl1954

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. – https://ve42.co/Kahneman

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Written by Derek Muller and Petr Lebedev

Animation by Ivy Tello and Fabio Albertelli

Filmed by Derek Muller and Raquel Nuno

Additional video/photos supplied by Getty Images

Music from Epidemic Sound (https://ve42.co/music)

Produced by Derek Muller, Petr Lebedev, and Emily Zhang